Shark Num-Nums
The odds of being eaten by a shark are about 1 in 3.7 million... which pretty much guarantees I will become shark chow.
I Could be Eaten by a Shark.
I have worried about that most of my life. The odds of being eaten by a shark are 1 in 3.7 million which is way higher odds than any of the big lotteries. I mean, seriously… I buy lottery tickets all the time where my odds are 1 in 292.2 million because I think I can win. Terrible odds, but I could win.
Shark = 1 in 3.7 million.
Lottery = 1 in 292.2 million.
This means I am 79 times more likely to be eaten alive by a shark than I am to win the lottery.
This seems kind of out of life balance. Why should the BAD thing have such better odds of happening to me than the GOOD thing? Think about it.
If you put a shark behind one magic odds-based door and a lottery ticket behind the other - then made me pick a door, I would be 79 times more likely to have my face eaten off by the shark. I don’t like those odds. I do like having my face where it currently is. Hence, my fear of being eaten by a shark.
Between you and me, I would wait about 6 hours before making my door decision in hopes that the Shark would have suffocated stone dead before I picked a door.
No guarantee, but I like those odds better.
Decisions?
I talk about how the little decisions we make affect the outcome of our lives all the time here. That is kind of the focus behind the stories on this Substack. No matter how small the decision, it could have an outsize effect on our futures - good or bad.
You can’t get a much higher differential of “good” or “bad” than a shark vs. millions of dollars.
Then, I began to wonder… can I purposefully balance these odds? Can I do better than the 79 times more likely to be shark poop? (Sorry.)
If you remember from my previous post, the "What If Machine,” I posited that with such a machine we could see the outcome of our decisions before we made them. Sadly, I have not finished building that machine yet. [By the way, if you know a good source for large quantities of weapons-grade plutonium, I’d appreciate if you could… well… ummm… never mind. Forget I said anything.]
Moving on…
Back to my point, which was that we can’t really know what all of the consequences of our decisions will be, but we can potentially affect the odds.
Math Check the Shark.
I wondered if I could equalize the odds by using math as a shark repellent (ah, so my high school math teacher was apparently right). It was actually pretty easy, but please do not math-check me. I make math easy by generally ignoring all the rules from my previously mentioned math teacher and just going on gut instinct. Fortunately for us all, I am not a pilot or an engineer.
To balance the odds, I started with the lottery. If I were to buy two (2) tickets, I would improve my odds to 2 in 292.1 million, or 1 in 146.05 million. Not good enough.
If I buy 10 tickets, my odds are 1 in 29.21 million.
If I buy 20 tickets, my odds are 1 in 14.6 million. Still not there, how about more?
If I buy 79 tickets, my odds are 1 in 3.697 million! Statistically the same as the shark.
Whew! Now my odds for opening one of those doors is 50/50. For only about $158 dollars, I have the same odds of winning the lottery as I do of being shark chow. Better, but I’m still don’t want to be num-nums for the shark. (—> Special points if you can name the movie reference?)
Potential vs. Odds.
I need to do better. Much better! So far, we have focused on the odds to equalize the good and the bad. But there is another important factor we haven’t addressed… Potential.
If I bought $200 million dollars of lottery tickets every week, I would significantly improve my odds AND increase the potential of winning. Of course, that doesn’t do me much good unless I win more than I spend.
Point is that if I go all in, the potential of hitting a winning ticket is higher because I have bought more tickets and broadened the target significantly. The center of the target is now nearly as big as the target itself. Not guaranteed, but a statistically easier hit.
However, if I do NOT buy ANY tickets, then my potential of winning would be ZERO. No ticket, no potential to win.
Ahhhh…. now it is starting to come into focus.
In order to improve my odds of NOT being eaten by a shark, then all I have to do is reduce or eliminate the potential. The odds of death by shark are just a statistical number based on deaths by shark vs. the entire population, right?
I cannot buy more or less tickets on the Shark Attack Ride, so how do I reduce the odds of meeting the snapping jaws of death in person? That’s easy.
Remove the Potential.
I realized I can resolve this dilemma by removing (mostly) the potential of a shark attack by making sure I am where sharks are NOT.
People who often swim in the ocean have MUCH higher potential of a shark attack than those who do not. Obviously.
If I move to Oklahoma and swear to never visit the ocean or an aquarium, then there is practically no potential and I have reduced my odds of being eaten by a shark to about 1 in 100 billion!
Why not ZERO odds and potential?
Why only 1 in 100 billion? Simple.
After watching the movie “Sharknado”, I fear that there is the possibility, slim as it might be, that a large enough oceanic tornado could sweep up a swarm of angry live sharks from the ocean, then move inland.
I could be walking down the street in Oklahoma City, head down, staring at my phone like nearly everyone else, when BAM! Out of nowhere, a Sharknado drops in and belches out a really pissed off Great White from the sky.
The shark, through odds that still exist even with the lowered potential, gains speed as it torpedoes toward earth, using its fins to adjust targeting, then ultimately nailing me teeth first as we intersect in that moment of potential.
Whether the shark is alive or dead at the time, I would still consider that “being eaten by a shark” for statistical data.
It could happen!
Damn! Now I have to worry about tornadoes.
David Nemzoff
Author, Consultant, Wonderer of “What If ?”
https://www.linkedin.com/in/nemzoff/
Author of “Public Speaking for Kids, Tweens, and Teens - Confidence for Life!”
Coming soon, my new book exploring the reformation of our K-12 Educational System. Subscribe to be one of the first to know when my new book is published. If you have a large following, let me know if you would like an Advanced Read Copy (ARC).
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